It'S A Little Difficult For Raw Material To Rise Slightly

Affected by the negative release of the G20 Summit between China and the United States, cotton raw materials have fluctuated upward recently. But looking at the yarn market, although textile mills have the intention to raise prices, it is not easy to rise.

According to market feedback, textile mills all over the country intend to slightly increase yarn prices in the near future. Pure cotton yarn has risen slightly, and signing is still not ideal. As of July 8, the ex factory quotation of a factory in Shandong was 22500 yuan/ton for 21S high configuration ring spinning pure cotton yarn for knitting and 23300 yuan/ton for 32S high configuration ring spinning pure cotton yarn for knitting, which was the same as the price of the previous trading day, up 100 yuan/ton from July 1. According to reports, on the 8th, the mainstream prices of 21S and 32S cotton yarn combs in Hebei, Shandong and Henan were 20500 yuan/ton and 21200 yuan/ton respectively, which had little change from the previous week, with a small increase of 100 yuan/ton for some; The price of combing 21S and 32S is 23000 yuan/ton and 24000 yuan/ton respectively, about 200 yuan/ton higher than that of the previous week. According to manufacturers' introduction, most of the actual deals were negotiated at 200 yuan/ton. That is to say, the yarn is bright and dark.

Analysis of reasons: First, the raw materials rose. The main CF1909 contract of Zheng Mian Futures closed at 13890 yuan/ton on July 5, up 150 yuan/ton from 13740 yuan/ton on June 28. As of July 8, the quotation of "Shuang 29" and "Shuang 28" machine picked cotton from the Xinjiang regulatory base was 14900-15000 yuan/ton (a small number of "Shuang 30" quotations exceeded 15100 yuan/ton) and 14650-14800 yuan/ton, up about 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. 2、 Enterprises are still willing to destock due to losses. According to the survey, textile enterprises are suffering from serious losses in cotton yarn inventory, most of which are upside down 1000 yuan/ton); Even if it is calculated as 14500-14600 yuan/ton (public weight) of Xinjiang machine picked cotton in the "Double 28" at the beginning of July, there is almost no profit in spinning C32S yarn; If reserve cotton and Xinjiang cotton are used together, the profit of spinning C32S and C40S yarns is acceptable, but whether they can be shipped and paid back in time is still a problem. In addition, orders from textile mills have not improved significantly.

To sum up, supported by raw materials and cost inversion, textile enterprises are willing to raise yarn prices. However, downstream orders have not improved significantly, which is the reason why it is difficult for pure cotton yarn to rise. Polyester yarn and rayon yarn rose slightly.

As of July 7, a 32S polyester yarn factory in Weifang, Shandong, reported 16400 yuan/ton (invoiced for delivery), which was 200 yuan/ton higher than that on June 30. Large orders can be negotiated according to the volume. As of July 7, a factory in Shandong had a 30S cotton yarn of 17900 yuan/ton (tax included) in this daily report. Compared with June 30, the price rose by 100 yuan/ton. The sales volume was average, and large orders could be negotiated according to the volume. According to analysis, the rise of raw materials is the main reason for the rise of polyester yarn and rayon yarn. According to the data, as of July 7, a factory in Zhejiang had offered 8950 yuan/ton of polyester staple fiber (tax included delivery price, short delivery for the whole vehicle), and the sales volume was fair. Compared with July 1, the price rose by 200 yuan/ton, and the sales volume was fair. Large orders can be negotiated according to the volume. As of July 7, a factory in Shandong reported 12000 yuan/ton for 1.5D * 38mm viscose staple fiber and 11900 yuan/ton for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber. Compared with July 1, the price increased by 200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated slightly.

Then, how will the yarn trend in the near future, and whether it can get a full recovery. The author analyzes that the Sino US trade negotiations are still full of variables, and textile and clothing enterprises are cautious in receiving orders and production. Although the US side has temporarily postponed the imposition of tariffs on China's exports to the US of 350 billion dollars, the US side has gone through all the procedures of taxation, which may fall at any time. The resumption of Sino US trade negotiations is only the starting point of the trade war, and differences between the two sides still exist, The agreement content and negotiation attitude have not yet changed, and Chinese enterprises still need to be prepared for this "protracted war and war of attrition".