The Ups And Downs Of Stock Market Are Closely Related To Capital Flows.

The ups and downs of 2015 will soon be over. Looking ahead to the 2016 market, how much capital can flow into the market is the focus of market concern.

Looking back over the past three years, it can be seen that the ups and downs of the market and the flow of capital are very long. The stock market has been playing a game of 14 years of incremental capital from 13 years of stock capital to market, and then to the first half of 15 years.

Looking forward to the 16 years, under the background of falling interest rates, asset allocation of institutional investors is turning.

Unchanged, capital continues to flow into the stock market, which is milder than 15 years, and the market is expected to move from passion to warmth.

The overall balance of capital supply and demand in 2013 is the stock.

Game market.

In 2013, the scale of capital inflow and outflow was small, and the annual capital inflow was 378 billion 400 million. The main inflow was 204 billion 800 million of bank card pfer and 257 billion 800 million of the financing balance, and 550 billion 400 million of the capital outflow. The main outflow was 391 billion of refinancing, with a net inflow of -1721 billion.

In the market of stock capital game, investors tend to sell blue chips to buy small tickets, while the composite index fell 6.8% during the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index 50 fell 15.2%, and the gem index rose 82.7%.

Starting in the second half of 2014

Starting in the market, the market takes cattle.

In 2014, the stock market's capital inflow amounted to 18840 billion, which was about 5 times the scale of the 2013 capital inflow, and the capital inflow mainly came from the increase of the bank card pfer and the financing balance.

Affected by the expansion of refinancing and the increase and decrease of industrial capital, the outflow of funds has also expanded to 997 billion 700 million.

Net inflows of 886 billion 300 million, net inflows in the first half of 125 billion 400 million, net inflows in the second half of the year, and incremental capital in the second half. In July, with the expected increase in the reform and the stimulation of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the stock fund game evolved into an incremental market. Especially after the interest rate cut in November 21st, the capital market accelerated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 52.9% and the gem index rose 12.8% over the whole year.

Capital went crazy in 2015.

In the first half of 2015, the market rose and the capital market entered a positive cycle. The largest scale of the pfer was 4 trillion and 690 billion, the balance of financing reached 2 trillion and 300 billion, and the public offering fund was issued at most 249 billion 100 million a month. The Shanghai Composite Index and the gem index rose by 60.1% and 174.5% respectively.

615 the deleveraging triggered by the stock market crash and the second wave of the 8 month depreciation of the exchange rate led to a continuous outflow of funds from the market. The floor balance of the fund fell to 904 billion at the end of August. After the central bank's "double down" in late September, the market sentiment gradually changed, and the financing balance began to pick up in September.

So far, the net inflow has reached 44016 billion, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 6.9%, and the gem index has risen 80.4%.

The rise and fall of stock market and capital flow are mutually dependent.

The ups and downs of stock market are accompanied by the inflow and outflow of funds, and the analysis of capital supply and demand is very important.

From the perspective of investor structure, capital inflow can be classified into four aspects: retail funds (bank card pfer), leveraged funds (financing balance), institutional funds (funds, insurance, etc.), and overseas funds (Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong).

Capital outflow can be traced to three aspects: stock market financing (IPO and refinancing), paction costs (stamp duty and Trading Commission), and industrial capital net reduction.

Next, let's make a brief review of market fluctuations and inflow and outflow in the past three years.

Compared with foreign financing structure, China's direct financing ratio is too low, only 18%, while the United States is 80%, and there will be huge room for future development.

The downward trend of interest rates has reduced the yield of various fixed income products, and the yield of IMF has decreased from 4.9% in 2013 to 2.8%. The yield of 1 year AA corporate bonds and 1 year financial products also decreased to 4% and 3.6% respectively.

While money is not sleeping, a large number of funds, especially institutional investors, have the demand for asset allocation, and the trend of incremental capital entering the market is intensified.

From the perspective of individual investors, the proportion of domestic shares in household assets is only 3%, 8 trillion and 800 billion.

The stock market share of the US household assets is 32%, and with the direct financing instead of indirect financing, the era of real estate investment has been on the way.

Capital continues to flow into the stock market from passion to warmth.

According to our above analysis, we expect to add about 5 trillion and 500 billion capital in 16 years, including 2 trillion of bank financing and private bank allocation funds, 630 billion of insurance social security and pension funds, 2 trillion and 700 billion of savings and 2 trillion and 700 billion of overseas funds, and 170 billion of overseas funds. We expect 16 years' demand for funds to be 2 trillion and 200 billion, including IPO4000 billion, refinancing 1 trillion, paction cost 320 billion, and industrial capital net reduction 500 billion.

The net inflow of 16 years is expected to be about 3 trillion and 300 billion. The current market capitalization is 20 trillion, the supply of funds is greater than demand, and the bull market pattern remains unchanged. However, compared with the net inflow of 4 trillion and 400 billion in 15 years, the market value of 14 trillion in the beginning of the year, and the inflow of capital in 16 years will be more relaxed.