It Remains To Be Seen Whether Terminal Weaving Can Be Launched In The Peak Season.

Under the combined action of crude oil stabilization, centralized maintenance of PX and PTA devices and the demand peak season downstream, the PTA will continue to grow stronger in 9 to October.

But in the medium to long term, the surplus pattern of PTA industry will not change.

On the operation, it is recommended to wait patiently for the short selling opportunity after the rebound. The entry point is near 5000 yuan / ton.

9, October is the traditional "golden nine silver ten" demand peak season for the terminal weaving industry. Referring to the seasonal performance in the past years, the demand growth characteristics are more obvious.

However, at present, there are not many new orders in the downstream market, and there is no obvious improvement in production and marketing. The inventory problem is still grim, especially in the context of the current global economic slowdown and the significant depreciation of the emerging economies, the export of textile and clothing products is not satisfactory.

Customs data show that from 1 to August in 2015, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 193 billion 319 million US dollars, down 4.59% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports of textile yarn, fabrics and products were 72 billion 159 million US dollars, down 1.61% compared with the same period last year. Exports of garments and accessories were 112 billion 287 million US dollars, down 6.41% compared to the same period last year.

At the same time, taking into account the slowdown in domestic economic growth and weak physical demand, we need to maintain a prudent demand for effective demand in the peak season.

from

Overall situation, upstream PX, PTA centralized maintenance.

And weaving will usher in a busy demand season, which will support PTA prices in the short term.

But in the long run, the PTA surplus pattern has not been fundamentally improved. After a short period of centralized maintenance, the maintenance devices will continue to drive again.

It is reported that

Jialong's 600 thousand ton plant is scheduled to restart at the end of September after nearly 3 months' parking. The 4 million 500 thousand ton plant of Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company is also planned to be restarted at the end of September or early October.

In addition, by the end of this year, 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hon Bang petrochemical and 1 million tons of Sichuan Shengda will be put into operation.

In terms of terminal demand, the domestic and international economic slowdown, real estate investment downturn, textile and garment exports decline and other long-term negative factors continue, the overall no new growth highlights can continue to pull up PTA demand upward.

Therefore, the surplus pattern of PTA industry will continue, and the process of industrial integration and de production will still undergo a long and painful stage.

PTA price also cannot escape the big weak cycle.