PTA: Price Weak And Bad

Overnight oil prices and raw materials PX high volatility on PTA formation cost support, low operating rate is also good for PTA supply side, but the 1505 contract concentrated delivery on the spot market impact, downstream polyester production and marketing has also reached the peak state, the latter will gradually become weak, so PTA stage high volatility or choose to go down, yesterday's price from 5500 frontline continued to fall, pay attention to overnight oil price rise will boost the price again measure pressure.

1, upstream raw materials: crude oil Brent from June to 66.86 (+1.95) US dollars / barrel; naphtha to 578.25 (+2.0) US dollars / ton CFR Japan, heterogeneous MX to 839 839 (-5.0); Asia PXCFR to 975 (-14.0) CFR, equivalent PTA cost 5736 (-72) yuan / ton, and the factory cash flow loss of 141 yuan / ton.

PXFOB- naphtha oil price difference at 376 yuan per ton / ton, PX cash flow is at a high level; recently PX supply is tight, there will be several sets of devices to restart in the next ten days, and Sinopec is expected to increase production.

2.

From spot to 5230 (-35), the spot price is 8 yuan / ton compared with the 05 contract, the difference between the 5-9 contract price is -178 yuan / ton, and the external contract is 770 to +0 (ton).

MEG weakened, from 7700 to (-100) yuan per ton.

12 days of prosperity

At 5300 (0) yuan / ton, futures are weakening, but the spot market in the internal market is basically stable. The buyers are watching the atmosphere intensified. The market turnover is near 5250 yuan / ton, and one thousand tons of large single pactions are between traders and suppliers.

3, polyester polyester: Polyester quotation began to callback, mainstream manufacturers lowered the quotation, actually clinch a deal has 50-100 yuan / ton concessions, but the volume still did not improve significantly, polyester stocks slowly picked up, downstream

Digestion is mainly inventory.

The mainstream production and sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Dachang are about 40-50%, and the individual is better at 80%, lower at 20%, and polyester inventory is at a historic low.

4, the operation rate of the industrial chain: the domestic PTA plant operation rate is 66 (+0)%, the downstream polyester operation rate is 84.7 (-0)%, and the weaving load is 80 (+0)%.

5, the total volume of China Textile City is 948 (+78) million meters, of which 697 (+16) million meters are made of long staple cloth, and 254 (-126) million meters of short fiber cloth, and the volume of grey fabric has been steadily rising in May.

6. PTA inventory: PTA factory 3-4 (-0) days, polyester factory 3-4 (-0) days; Zhengshang warehouse warehouse + effective forecast 164324 (-557) Zhang; sell sets to maintain the warehouse volume to 61579 (-0) hand, buy a set of positions to 8000 (0) hand.

Personal view: macro good, high crude oil consolidation, while PX is relatively strong under the tight supply expectation, and cost has certain support for TA.

In recent years, the load of PTA industry has kept low, the market circulation goods are few, and polyester polyester very low inventory supports rigid demand. TA is in the out of stock state, and the supply and demand side is better.

On the other hand, PX and PTA profit preferences, PX and PTA have several sets of devices to restart in the middle of 5, while the demand for polyester polyester gradually decreases, and the latter half of 5 is under pressure.

Overnight crude oil substantially increased, PTA today is strong, short term single participation, concerned about the trend of crude oil and PTA industry load.