Zheng Mian'S Thinking Of Narrow Amplitude Shock

　　1. Spot goods: This year's textile enterprises will have a holiday earlier than in previous years. In addition, since the textile enterprises purchased a batch of lint in December 2014, it can still be maintained for a period of time. After the New Year's Day, the textile enterprises still have no intention of centralized replenishment.

　　2. subsidy : Until January 2015, with the approaching of the target price subsidy for Xinjiang cotton, the subsequent subsidy schedule and amount have attracted much attention. Although the 3.5 billion yuan allocated by the central government to Xinjiang has already been distributed, cotton farmers generally expect to receive full subsidies as soon as possible.

　　3. stock According to the sampling survey conducted by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of January 7, the average number of days for the cotton inventory of the sampled enterprises was about 28.3 days (including the number of imported cotton to Hong Kong), an increase of 3.2 days month on month and a decrease of 7 days year on year. According to relevant data, the national cotton industry inventory is about 626000 tons, an increase of 12.6% month on month and a decrease of 17.5% year on year. The inventory of cotton industry in major provinces across the country varies, with relatively large inventory in Fujian, Zhejiang and Hubei.

　　4. ICAC: According to the January supply and demand forecast issued by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the international cotton price has fallen sharply since last spring, from more than 90 cents to 80 cents at the end of the year, to less than 70 cents in December. It is difficult to change the situation of cotton supply exceeding demand in the future, and it is expected to remain low for a long time.

　　5. Xinjiang cotton As of January 9, 2015, Xinjiang has processed 4.09 million tons of lint in total. According to the survey conducted by the national cotton market monitoring system in October 2014, the total lint output in Xinjiang is 4.199 million tons. At present, the difference between the processing volume of Xinjiang lint and the prediction result of the monitoring system is only about 100000 tons. The author believes that by the end of January, the cumulative processing volume of lint in Xinjiang is expected to reach 4.19 million tons.

6. ICE cotton futures: On January 9, traders adjusted their positions before the release of the USDA monthly report. In March, the contract rose slightly after shocks, and the contract for the far month fell slightly.

Zheng Mian has recently taken a narrow range of shocks as a way of thinking. He has cut down his holdings by a certain amount in the long run. When it falls back, he will be long by a certain amount. The CF1505 contract is near 13000 yuan/ton, which is a good entry point. Also pay attention to the supply and demand report to be released by USDA today.

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On January 11, the sales price of local 3128 grade lint was 13100 yuan/ton (gross weight with ticket), and the sales price of 4128 grade lint was 12600 yuan/ton, compared with the previous day Ping. At present, it is difficult to sell spot goods because most cotton enterprises sell to textile enterprises, but textile enterprises are less motivated to buy. The main reasons are as follows: First, most of the large textile enterprises that can apply for quotas on the eve of New Year's Day The goods were well stocked, and the pace of procurement slowed down after the festival; Second, the Spring Festival is coming, and the textile enterprises have difficulty in capital turnover. The textile enterprises that insist on purchasing will buy when they need, and they will buy in small batches sporadically; Third, downstream consumption of textile enterprises remains unchanged In a weak situation, it is difficult to improve in a short time, and textile enterprises are not active in purchasing.

Some cotton enterprises insist on hedging in the Zheng cotton futures market, but with the acquisition, the quality of seed cotton has declined. According to the inspection data of a local cotton enterprise, the proportion of white cotton grade 4 and light spot dirty cotton grade 2 The quantity has increased. The level 4 discount of white cotton is 500 yuan/ton, and the level 2 discount of light spot dirty cotton is 700 yuan/ton. The profit space of warehouse receipt cotton has been swallowed up, and it has been in a loss situation. Therefore, some cotton enterprises said that if they want to continue in the futures market When hedging in the market, the first thing to do is to ensure the quality of seed cotton purchased. Only by maintaining the quality of seed cotton can it be meaningful to make warehouse receipt cotton. Therefore, in the later stage of seed cotton purchase, cotton enterprises will carefully purchase seeds with poor quality Cotton is rejected or purchased separately at a low price.

A few days ago, local cotton enterprises purchased white cotton grade 3 seed cotton at 2.95 yuan/jin (lint percentage 38%, moisture regain 13%), white cotton grade 4 seed cotton at 2.85 yuan/jin, and daily purchase quantity Less. As the cotton enterprises are not active in seed cotton purchase, the number of seed cotton purchase is small, and the number of cottonseed output is limited, the cotton enterprises are more willing to price cottonseed. The current quotation is 1.15 yuan/jin, which is flat compared with last week. Based on 3% loss, plus If the labor cost is 1000 yuan/ton, the production cost of white cotton grade 3 is 12950 yuan/ton. If the degradation phenomenon occurs after the second notarization and inspection, the profit space of the enterprise's production warehouse cotton is compressed, which may lead to loss Step. The Spring Festival is still more than a month away. Most cotton farmers use funds to sell cotton on the one hand, and set off fireworks and firecrackers during the Spring Festival. For safety reasons, they sell stored seed cotton.