Financial Year: Peng Wensheng Predicts That China's Stock Market Will Be Better Than Other Countries In 2014.

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< p > > on November 18th -20 held in Beijing "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as "> financial annual meeting < /a >: 2014 forecast and strategy", a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > China International Capital Co < /a > chief economist and Bo Yuan foundation special economist, "a", "Peng Wensheng", said at the annual meeting of Finance and economics. Based on the decision of the third plenary session, the Chinese stock market may be better than other regions next year. At present, the rest of the world has gone up a lot, and the potential for growth is limited. < /p >
< p > below is a record of Peng Wensheng's statement: < /p >
< p > Peng Wensheng: I strongly agree with Dr. Douglas DIAMOND's analysis of the economy. I have two points: < /p >
< p > first, my view on next year's economy is synchronous recovery and the two increase in monetary liquidity. Why synchronous recovery? In the two quarter and the three quarter, the developed economies, the United States, Japan and Europe are all growing, while the a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > global financial crisis /a > the first three largest economies will grow at the same time, and this trend may continue to next year. There are two big factors behind this. One is the financial aspect. In the past two years, the developed countries are suffering from fiscal retrenchment, especially in Europe and the United States. Next year, we look at the various aspects of the government's financial planning. Next year, the fiscal tightening is significantly lower than before. This is a support for the economy. On the other hand, the recovery of the US economy is relatively good, which has a pull effect on other economic experiences. This is a trend I am talking about synchronous recovery. The overall growth is still very weak, and there is uncertainty in the pace and timing of the withdrawal of monetary policy. If we compare the current situation with that before entering the crisis, we can see that the two problems of the US economy have not changed. One is that the massive monetary expansion does not bring inflation, but only promotes asset prices, which is also the same before the global financial crisis. The two is the widening gap between the rich and the poor in American society, which existed before the global financial crisis. The main means of the Federal Reserve is monetary expansion, which has led to an increase in the value of assets. Therefore, monetary easing has increased the gap between the rich and the poor. What is the final outcome? What is the result of the current economic and market analysis of the reasons for the expansion of the US currency expansion and the widening gap between the rich and the poor on the future economy? In fact, there is a lack of a more reasonable explanation for the fluctuation of monetary relations in the future. Now we are not a linear relationship. What is the monetary policy of the United States next year? Is it going to continue to be loose or tighten more than we expect? This is a big problem for the global economy. < /p >
The decision of the Third Plenary Session of China's economy, which is related to P, has a relatively high impact on the capital market and has obvious impetus. Investors also have a short-term concern that interest rates have risen recently, and interbank market interest rates have driven up long-term interest rates. Today, "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as "Douglas DIAMOND < /a" teaches short-term liabilities and financial problems, maintaining the risk of low level for a long time. He said this view helps us understand why our money market Li Xu has obviously increased in the second half of this year. In fact, the problems we face today are in some sense the shadow banks, and the important characteristic of the shadow banks' massive expansion is the dislocation, and the bank debts are financing. From the perspective of monetary policy, there is also an angle that market interest rates can not be stable for a long time at a low level, resulting in low cost of financing. We are now in the opposite direction of the interest rate cycle and the United States. Now we need to control financial risks and interest rates to be a bit higher. What is the meaning of the global monetary environment fluctuation next year? In a sense, I think it's a good thing. The global market volatility is faced with a smaller pressure on capital. From the perspective of capital market, I see some customers are always asking when interest rates will come down. There are two possibilities. The real estate bubble, shadow banking activities, prudential supervision and strengthening will curb, and interest rates will have a significant drop. The second is that the real a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > the Federal Reserve Policy < /a > has undergone relatively large changes. The global monetary environment has changed considerably, leading to the change of risk, especially the risk changes in emerging markets. < /p >