Attention Has Been Paid To The Impact Of Storage And Storage On The Cotton Market.

Since national operation intervened in the cotton market, Cotton market The market has become a policy market. When the weather has no significant impact, every move of storage and storage affects cotton market. When purchasing and storing, the cotton price will close to the storage and storage price, and the cotton price will be downloaded under storage. But how will the market react when the storage and storage are carried out at the same time?

We have always maintained the view that we should not worry too much about setting aside reserves. We believe that putting storage itself is not the main reason for market reversal. Although consumption is sluggish, textile exports are not very active. However, in the second half of the year, the sales season is very high. In the time of supply gap between the new and old cotton, the part of the cotton put into the market is a normal regulation. The 18500 yuan / ton storage price is very close to the current market price of standard cotton. There is basically no price difference. Therefore, we conclude that there is no need to worry too much about the state's operation of putting cotton into the market, and its impact on cotton price is limited. Moreover, the storage and storage were carried out as early as possible, and the negative impact of the storage and storage on the market has been exhausted. In fact, 7 months later, rumors began to store and cotton fell, and the price dropped from 600 yuan to 19500 yuan, which lasted for half a month. Among them, the 4 consecutive day of accelerated decline occurred in July 25th, but stabilized near 19000 yuan and ushered in the mid-term upsurge of purchasing and storage. Basically, it can be said to be smooth and unimpeded on the upstream passageway, and it took half a month to recover the lost land before 600 and return to 19500 yuan. Just in August 20th, the price of the nearby policy dropped slightly by 300 points. But at that time, the time when the purchase and storage started in September 10th was already very close, these 300 points only needed a few days to continue smoothing. So far, almost all the reserves have been depleted, and the price is back to the level before the middle of July. In the future, if the market turns around, it will also be released. policy Relevance is not large.

Relative to storage, storage and collection is more noteworthy. First, the 20400 yuan / ton storage price is high. At present, the purchase and storage began to start, but the price of Zheng cotton is still lower than the close storage price of nearly 1000 yuan / ton. The rise of the futures market's inherent leverage and long-term effects has not yet been discussed. Notice how the weak spot market can increase the cost of 20400 yuan / ton cotton. If the two can not be integrated, or will leave the foreshadowing of the market turn. That is to say, the market dissatisfied with policy pricing is likely to be the main reason for the reversal of market outlook. The performance of the price and spot price after the purchase and storage is worth paying attention.

To sum up, the single line layout of the center line proposed by the end of July is effective. cotton The main force rises from 18900 yuan to 19600 yuan. There are two concerns in September, one of which is domestic policy factors. We suspect that the sustainability of policy support to the market is limited. It is recommended that we should pay attention to the empty list in the beginning. However, it is best to maintain stability in the international macro context. That's the second factor we need to talk about: American quantitative easing. The US Conference on interest rates and Bernanke's speech in September 14th were the focus. Although cotton is not very sensitive to macroeconomic factors for a long time, if it is the main advantage of quantitative easing such market is looking forward to many months, do not take it lightly.