The Negative Effect Of The European Debt Crisis On Export Shoe Enterprises Will Gradually Show

Although the recently released export data show that Fujian EU exports It still maintains a high growth rate. However, it is widely believed in the industry that the impact of the European debt crisis is lagging behind, and its negative effects on export enterprises will gradually show in the second half of the year. According to insiders, the European debt crisis will lead to a decline in the overall consumption capacity of EU countries, which will further affect the market's import demand for Chinese consumer goods and other commodities.

Alert: European customers "play disappear"

According to the statistics of relevant provincial departments, Fujian's import and export to the EU in the first half of this year reached US $8.39 billion, up 33.3%. Among them, exports reached 6.82 billion US dollars, up 35%; Imports totaled US $1.57 billion, up 26.5%. However, the beautiful data of exports to the EU in the first half of the year did not bring good mood to the enterprises focusing on the EU market.

Mr. Zhang, the boss of a trading company in Putian, told reporters that many of its European customers had "disappeared" since July.

"This may have something to do with the" summer vacation "in Europe. Every summer, many companies in Europe will take vacations. Some companies may take turns to take vacations. Some small and medium-sized companies even all employees take vacations. No one even answers their front desk phone. In the past years, we also met with customers' holiday situations, but they basically arranged things before the holiday, made clear what should be paid, and also looked at the email during the holiday to deal with some emergencies. The situation this year is not so good. A Spanish customer still had a balance payment that he didn't give us. Before he 'disappeared', he told us that the payment had been remitted, but we went to the bank to check whether it had been remitted. Later, I wanted to ask him for a remittance slip, but I couldn't find anyone. The email didn't return, and the phone couldn't get through. There is really no way. " Mr. Zhang said.

He told reporters that at present, some European customers are very dishonest in terms of payment. They always procrastinate when they can.

analysis: market demand Will decline

With the impact of the European debt crisis, the overall consumption capacity of the EU will decline, which will have a negative impact on China's exports of consumer goods. According to the research of foreign authoritative institutions, in general, if the euro exchange rate drops by 1%, China's exports to the EU will decrease by 0.65%, while the GDP of the euro area will decrease by 1%, and China's exports to Europe will decrease by about 6%.

"I think the impact of the European debt crisis on Fujian's overall export situation may be a relatively mild process. At present, the overall export has shown a recovery trend, and it is a trend of rapid growth. However, from a longer perspective, such as the second half of this year, the impact of the European debt crisis will gradually emerge. Because the inquiry, counter-offer, negotiation, contract signing and export delivery of foreign trade orders usually take several months. Therefore, its impact on exports will lag behind. In addition, in terms of market demand, people in many EU countries enjoy good welfare. When the country does not have enough money to provide them with welfare, their consumption expenditure will inevitably be affected, which will lead to the decline of overall demand in the EU market. " An industry expert said so.

Zheng Hongfeng, general manager of Fuzhou Hongpu Electromechanical Equipment Co., Ltd., said that the European debt crisis may last for a long time, Export enterprises We should be ready for a protracted war.

"I don't think the European debt crisis has ended so soon. Look at the current situation in Greece. The crisis has lasted for so long. The government is actively reducing the deficit, but ordinary people who are used to generous welfare are unwilling, which has led to continuous riots and strikes. Look at the whole Europe, not only Greece, which country has not gone on strike, but also your side came on the scene, and airline staff, train drivers, teachers and other industry personnel lined up in turn to strike. Every strike means that the government has failed to reduce the deficit. " He said.

Prediction: it will not "kill" the economic recovery

Although many business people and experts in the industry are pessimistic about the situation of exports to Europe in the coming months, others believe that the impact of the European debt crisis on China's exports is not so pessimistic.

Wu, manager of the foreign trade department of a group in Quanzhou, said that the European debt crisis is not an economic crisis. Although it may suppress the process of economic recovery, it will not "kill" the recovery of demand in the entire international market. In response to this crisis, EU countries have begun to resolve it internally, so the impact on China's exports in the future is relatively limited.

It is reported that, as far as the current situation is concerned, the impact of the European debt crisis on its companies is not significant, mainly because its companies have less exports to Greece, Spain and other EU countries with "deep" crises, so it feels that the impact is not great.

Some scholars also believe that, under the European debt crisis, the EU is not reducing fiscal expenditure at the cost of economic recession, but actively seeking new economic growth points, striving to reduce deficits and stimulate economic growth; In addition, the European debt crisis shifted the attention of the international market to Europe, and the market's expectation of RMB appreciation eased, reducing the pressure of RMB appreciation against the US dollar, thus benefiting China's exports.

In addition, Hou Lidong, the manager of PEAK's public relations department, said that the overall export situation of PEAK this year was good. Last year, PEAK's export sales accounted for 8.9% of the total turnover, up 7.5% year on year. Compared with previous years, this proportion has indeed decreased. However, the main reason for the smaller proportion of export sales is that last year's overall sales increased significantly, so the proportion of export sales seems to be less.

Hou Lidong said that at present, PEAK's export situation in Europe is relatively optimistic. Compared with the same period last year, this year's orders have indeed declined, but only the single volume has declined, and the total volume has not seen a downward trend. "Affected by the European debt crisis, many large orders from Europe have been split into small orders. In the past, customers who might order once a quarter may now order once a month, and then add more," he said.