Can Crude Oil Rebound And Ethylene Glycol Be Independent?

Crude oil has bottomed out in December 24th. Up to now, the cumulative increase has reached 23%. The chemical market index also follows the rebound trend, but the strength of ethylene glycol and its growth is limited.

As of January 21st, the glycol spot market followed a rebound. But with the recent fall in crude oil rebound, can ethylene glycol be left alone?

Cost side rebound

Us WTI crude futures in February (January 22nd) $1.33, or 2.47%, at $52.57 / barrel, February. Brent crude futures in March fell $1.24, or 1.98%, to $61.50 / barrel on Tuesday.

Signs of global economic slowdown are still worrying the market. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Russia's energy ministers may not be able to hold talks, and the good mood has been suppressed.

The US WTI crude futures price touched a minimum of 51.80 US dollars / barrel, and Brent crude oil futures touched a minimum of 60.57 US dollars per barrel. With the crude oil rebound coming to an end, the prediction of ethylene glycol cost side support will gradually dissipate.

The supply side is still expected to be abundant.

Recently, domestic and overseas installations are in good stability. China's salt and red Quartet and Sanjiang fine chemicals will be restarted in the near future. Only Yongjin Luoyang and Xinxiang are still in the parking lot. In February, domestic ethylene glycol production is expected to be around 670 thousand tons.

Abroad, the United States added 700 thousand tons of ethylene glycol unit stable operation, will also arrive in China. Overall, although there was a spring festival holiday in February and the import volume was limited, the container terminal was still in the inventory stage.

Polyester and terminal into repair season

With the Spring Festival approaching, the terminal weaving has been closed in advance, the average stopping time is about a month. Polyester will gradually enter the maintenance period. According to the data, the design capacity of the polyester parking device will reach 15 million this year and the start-up load will be reduced to about 74%. The strong performance of PTA in recent years has also stimulated the purchasing demand of polyester enterprises and terminal weaving enterprises.

However, in order to cope with the accumulated inventory during the Spring Festival, polyester enterprises must maintain low inventory before the Spring Festival, which has restrained the downstream demand for a certain extent.

To sum up, the crude oil rebound started to fall after the acceleration of the crude oil rebound. At present, the ethylene ethylene glycol plant operation rate is 81%, the coal glycol plant operation rate is 69%, the domestic ethylene glycol supply steadily rises, the port inventory increases, the downstream polyester plant maintenance increases, the demand for polyester plant tends to turn pale, the supply and demand is still weak in the near future, Sinopec's January ethylene glycol settlement price has been reduced to 5330 yuan / ton, the spot price has been sorted out, the ethylene glycol period price has rebounded briefly, but the supply and demand is weak, the pattern has suppressed the upward space.